Dear Investors,
Another month has gone by in the short existence of Ibiiza Traders. First let me tell you the yield: its going to be 16,5%. Apparently the typical summer months? Market behaviour like in July and August prolonged into September. Altho the stock and bond markets rebounded the foreign-exhcange market remained relatively calm, such in contrary to what we expected.
The long awaited G7 meeting, on which currency issues were on the agenda, turned out to be a total non event and these biggest industrial nations didnt give any guidelines as to where they liked the various currency pairs heading too. Even about the heavily undervalued yen practically no words were mentioned. Eben the worlds’ trade imbalances were disregarded. Only attention went out to the Chinese Yuan rate relative to the Dollar which suffers currently an under valuation of estimated 40% against the Greenback. The Chinese do not seem very willing to give up this low rate, which is fixed to the Usd. As this would undermine their excellent export position. The fact that this undervaluation cost sofar around 20 million jobs in the USA doesnt seem to be found overly important to the US administration. After the G7 all eyes were focused on the new state secretary of Treasury, Henri Paulson (former Goldman Sachs ceo) who visited China in another attempt to change the opinion of the Chinese. Thus far with the same results as his predecessors, many words and little action.
The Euro maintained its stable condition against the other majors and only moved in a very tight range, just like over summer. Foretunately the English pound showed a better volatility of which we could profit substantially. Currently our main activity is Pound dollar trading untill we see opportunities in the other majors. Also we started trading into some of the minor western currencies like New Zealand and Australian dollar which, esp. NZD shows signs of good volatility. Hence, given the market circumstances, we are very happy with the realized results, under the given complicated market situations.
For October, again, we expect overall more activity in the market as usual. The geopolitical situation is not getting much better in the meantime. Negotiations between Europe and Iran havent given any tangible results and we do not think Iran will give up its sovereign right to enrich Uranium and produce nuclear weapons, which was yesterday again confirmed by Iran’s leader Ahmadinejad. In the meantime the hawkish stance of the US administration increases which will make chance of a compromise nearly impossible, which in turn will also increase the military chance of US intervention. This will certainly affect the currency market in the weeks and months to come. And also in our opinion we see oil and gold prices moving upward before the year end.
All payments will be done by the 7th October.
We thank you for investing with us.
With kind regards
Peter Ris
Director
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